Windhoek:

Suburban peripheral protection paranoia

Above you see pictures of three garden gates/fences of various eras. The first is the the old fashioned scrolly wrought iron gate I remember when I was little. Easy for burglars to leap over but maybe there weren't so many then. Let's say that prior to independence in 1990 all gates and fences were like this, about 1 metre high. Next you see a typical garden wall, in the standard tasteful vibracrete surmounted by Dachau type razor wire, circa year 2000 and two metres high. Next you see the gate and wall of a newly erected house, i.e. 2005, some 3 and a bit metres high.

I am interested in the trend here - that is, the rate of average suburban wall height growth in Windhoek against time. The level of suburban paranoia I thought would increase exponentially; however, this is weighed back somewhat by the increased cost of building higher structures. Let is then guess that the rate of increase is quadratic, commencing at the 'origin' of year 1990. We then try to fit a parabola through points (x=1990, y=1; x=2000 y=2) where y is your average peripheral wall height.

This gives a relation like y = 0.01x^2 + 1, which when we substitute our year of 2005, gives y = 3.25 metres, a good approximation to the height of the 2005 wall. Extending this, we see the in the epochal year 2030 the height of the average garden wall and gate in Windhoek will be 17 metres, and in the year 2200 it will have attained 442 metres, higher than the plateau of the Gamsberg rises above the surrounding plain.

Have a safe weekend

bill torbitt